Spain vs. Cabo Verde

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Spain face Cabo Verde in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 15 June. The 91% implied probability reflects the substantial gap in playing strength between a European powerhouse and an Atlantic island nation ranked 205th in FIFA standings. No material shifts in team news or injury reports have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter baseline expectations around this fixture.

Historical precedent strongly supports the current odds. Spain have won all competitive matches against Cabo Verde (three encounters since 2013), outscoring them 13–1 across those meetings. Comparable World Cup mismatches—where a top-20 side faces a team outside the top 100—settle in favour of the stronger nation roughly 95% of the time. The 91% probability sits slightly conservative relative to that historical baseline, likely reflecting residual uncertainty around squad rotation, pitch conditions in North America, or unforeseen injury complications closer to match day.

Traders should monitor Spain's final squad announcement and any late fitness updates on key players in the week preceding 15 June. Cabo Verde's preparation and any tactical adjustments flagged by their coaching staff carry minimal predictive weight given the talent disparity. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day itself, meaning live-match developments—early goals, red cards, or unexpected tactical shifts—will influence final pricing during the 90 minutes. Weather forecasts for the venue and any last-minute venue changes should be tracked via official FIFA communications.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.