Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% Galions | 100% Eintracht Spandau |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% Galions | 100% Eintracht Spandau |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Galions and Eintracht Spandau are set to contest the EMEA Masters League of Legends semifinal on 14 June, with the winner advancing to the regional final. The best-of-five format means either team needs three map victories to progress. Current implied odds place Galions at a marginal favourite, reflecting uncertainty about form and recent roster adjustments within the competitive European Masters circuit.
EMEA Masters semifinals have historically favoured teams with stable mid-season momentum over raw seeding position. Eintracht Spandau's path through the bracket and recent scrim performance against comparable opponents will be material; similarly, Galions' consistency in the regular season versus their playoff adaptation rate shapes the matchup. Teams entering semifinals with unresolved support-jungle synergy issues or recent substitutions have underperformed relative to pre-tournament expectations in prior seasons, a pattern worth monitoring for either squad.
The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing six hours post-match completion for official confirmation. Traders should track any last-minute roster confirmations or coaching staff announcements in the 48 hours before play, as EMEA Masters organisations occasionally field lineup changes late in the tournament cycle. Schedule adherence has been reliable for this competition; delays beyond the seven-day threshold are uncommon. Watch for any official LEC or EMEA Masters communications regarding broadcast status or technical requirements that might affect match integrity.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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