Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Independiente del Valle and Rosario Central are set to contest a Copa Libertadores fixture on 27 May at 6:00 PM ET, with additional betting markets now available for the match. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that supplementary markets will be offered, a standard occurrence for major continental competition fixtures in South American football. Settlement closes at 10:00 PM ET on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kickoff for market resolution.
Copa Libertadores matches consistently generate expanded market offerings once group or knockout stages are confirmed and team sheets finalised. Historical precedent shows that major fixtures between established clubs—particularly those involving Argentine sides with established betting infrastructure—trigger multiple derivative markets within 48 hours of kickoff. Rosario Central's participation in continental competition and Independiente del Valle's Ecuadorian prominence both suggest sufficient liquidity to justify additional market creation, though the timing depends on bookmaker and platform discretion rather than automatic triggers.
Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL fixture confirmations and any late squad changes that might affect market appetite. Injury announcements or tactical shifts in the 72 hours preceding kickoff occasionally prompt market operators to delay or expand offerings. Fixture postponements, whilst rare in established continental tournaments, remain a technical dependency; confirmation of the scheduled 6:00 PM ET start time on match day itself represents the final catalyst for settlement certainty. Platform-specific market creation timelines vary, but most operators activate supplementary markets 24–36 hours before established kickoff times.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $235K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central - Mor… on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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