Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Emma Navarro’s quarter-final against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is the live event driving this market, and the main change in the last 24–48 hours is that the match has moved from a scheduled fixture into a live-not-played state, with bookmakers and preview models still making Navarro a clear favourite. Recent previews price Navarro around a 68% chance, while Tennis.com’s projection is similar at 63%, which helps explain why the crowd-implied 100% YES is only meaningful if the market is already effectively treating the favourite as an almost certain advance rather than a literal certainty[1][3].

The comparable frame here is a standard grass-court WTA quarter-final, where market pricing can remain stable until late team news, but the actual settlement risk is less about form and more about whether play happens cleanly. Navarro reached this stage after successive comeback wins in Nottingham, including a three-set win over Yulia Starodubtseva, while Bouzas Maneiro’s route into the match has not displaced Navarro from favourite status in the pre-match numbers[4][1]. In practice, that makes the current price most sensitive to whether the match starts on time and is completed within the settlement window.

For traders, the key catalysts are the WTA’s order of play, any last-minute court assignment changes, and weather-related delays, since Nottingham is a grass event and those conditions can interrupt scheduling quickly. Live scoreboards already list the match as an upcoming quarter-final, which means any official start-time slippage, walkover, retirement, or abandonment would matter directly for settlement rather than just the tennis outcome[6][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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