Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Nottingham Open first-round clash between Ann Li and Kimberly Birrell is scheduled for 16 June 2026. The 0% implied probability for Li reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation, as both players are active professionals on the WTA circuit with established records. Neither player has withdrawn from the tournament as of the latest available information, and the match remains scheduled at the advertised time.

Li, a former junior champion, has competed regularly on the WTA tour with mixed results at grass-court events. Birrell, an Australian player, has shown variable form across different surfaces but has competed in Nottingham previously. Head-to-head records between lower-ranked players are often sparse, making historical precedent less reliable than surface-specific performance data. The grass court at Nottingham typically favours players with strong serve-and-volley mechanics or consistent baseline power, which should inform assessment of each player's likely performance.

Traders should monitor the official Nottingham Open draw confirmation and any injury announcements from either camp through the WTA's official channels in the week preceding the match. Withdrawal rates at grass-court events are historically higher than on hard courts, particularly among players managing minor injuries before major tournaments. The settlement window closes 23 June, allowing seven days for the match to be completed; any delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current market pricing appears disconnected from baseline probability, suggesting either liquidity constraints or pending information affecting market confidence.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.