Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever played their WNBA matchup on 22 June 2026 at 8:00pm ET, with the game already completed and the market now reflecting a 0% chance of a Mercury win. This outcome aligns with the final score where Indiana secured the victory, confirming the market’s resolution to “Indiana Fever” rather than “Phoenix Mercury”[1][2].

Historically, when a team enters with a 0% implied probability in a settled game, it mirrors cases where the result was already decisive before the settlement window closed—such as the Atlanta Dream’s four-game winning streak against Toronto, where early dominance left no room for reversal[1]. In such scenarios, the probability does not shift because the outcome is fixed, and traders should treat the 0% as a confirmation of a completed event rather than a forecast.

Traders should monitor official WNBA injury reports and any post-game statements from team coaches, as these can clarify whether the result was influenced by key player availability or tactical adjustments[1]. With the settlement window ending on 23 June 2026, there is no further action unless the game is postponed or cancelled, which would keep the market open or resolve it 50-50[2]. Recent highlights confirm the final score and player performances, leaving no ambiguity about the outcome[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.