St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cardinals travel to Queens for a midweek fixture against the Mets on 10 June, with the crowd currently pricing St. Louis at a marginal 51% favourite. This represents a modest shift from earlier positioning, reflecting recent form adjustments across both rosters heading into the second half of June. The matchup falls within the window where both teams' injury reports and bullpen availability typically crystallise, making the 24-48 hour period before first pitch material for probability recalibration.

Historically, Cardinals-Mets regular season contests have tracked closely to preseason win projections when neither side carries significant personnel disruptions. Over the past three seasons, the home team in this pairing has won approximately 54% of meetings, a modest but consistent edge that suggests the Mets' Citi Field advantage warrants consideration. The current 51-49 split implies traders are already factoring venue dynamics, though the tightness of the market suggests uncertainty around starting pitcher availability or recent offensive trends.

Watch for roster announcements from both organisations through 9 June, particularly regarding bullpen depth and any late-inning availability questions. Recent performance metrics—runs scored in the last ten games and earned run average trends for likely starters—will likely drive the final probability movement. The settlement window extends to 17 June, allowing for postponement scenarios given June weather patterns in the Northeast, though this typically remains a secondary consideration unless rain forecasts materialise within 48 hours of game time.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.