St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cardinals travel to Queens for a regular-season matchup against the Mets on 9 June at 7:10 PM ET, with settlement occurring after the final out on 16 June. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally strong conviction in one side or sparse trading activity in this particular fixture. Given the settlement window extends a full week beyond the scheduled game date, the market accounts for potential postponements due to weather or other disruptions common in early June baseball.

Historical precedent suggests single regular-season games between mid-tier teams rarely sustain certainty odds in prediction markets. The Cardinals and Mets occupy similar competitive tiers within their divisions, with neither typically commanding overwhelming favourites status in head-to-head matchups. When such extreme probabilities appear in sports markets, they often indicate low liquidity rather than genuine predictive consensus—traders may simply be absent or the market may have locked in an early position without subsequent challenge.

Watch for starting pitcher announcements in the 48 hours before game time, as rotation changes materially shift expected outcomes. Recent injury reports from either clubhouse could trigger repricing if key position players become unavailable. Weather forecasts for the New York area warrant monitoring, particularly given the settlement window's allowance for postponement. Any roster moves or trades affecting either team between now and 9 June would warrant reassessment of the current odds, though such moves remain unlikely in early June.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.