Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Marlins host the Pirates on 13 June at 4:05PM ET in Miami, with the market currently pricing the home side at 51% implied probability. This represents a marginal favourite position despite Miami's broader 2026 season context—the Marlins entered June well below .500, whilst Pittsburgh has maintained competitive positioning in the NL Central. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponement coverage should weather disrupt the original fixture.

Historical matchups between these franchises show minimal home-field advantage patterns; since 2020, Miami has won 52% of games at loanDepot Park against Pittsburgh, nearly matching the current market probability. The Pirates' recent form matters more than venue: Pittsburgh has won 11 of its last 15 games as of early June, whilst Miami's inconsistency has defined their season. When comparing similar situations—division basement teams hosting streaking opponents—the market typically underweights recent momentum, suggesting the 51% for Miami may overstate their positioning.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time. Pitching matchups have historically shifted these markets by 3–5 percentage points in comparable fixtures. Weather forecasts for Miami on 13 June will also merit attention; afternoon thunderstorms are common in June and could delay or postpone the game entirely. Any roster moves or injury updates from either club before first pitch could trigger repricing, particularly if either team's primary starter becomes unavailable.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.