Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
33% | 67% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
33% | 67% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Brazil (-1.5) | 33% Brazil | 68% Morocco |
| Morocco (-1.5) | 5% Morocco | 95% Brazil |
| Brazil (-2.5) | 14% Brazil | 86% Morocco |
| Morocco (-2.5) | 2% Morocco | 99% Brazil |
| O/U 0.5 | 93% Over | 8% Under |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% Over | 28% Under |
Market context
Brazil and Morocco meet in a FIFA World Cup fixture on 13 June at 6:00 PM ET, with the market currently pricing a 33% probability that additional markets will open for this specific match. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on that date, giving traders roughly 16 hours from kick-off to see whether supplementary betting markets materialise beyond the standard match outcome offerings.
Historical precedent suggests that major tournament matches between established sides typically attract expanded market coverage. During the 2022 World Cup, FIFA matches involving top-ranked nations saw secondary markets (player performance, specific event outcomes, aggregate statistics) launch within hours of fixture confirmation. Brazil's ranking and Morocco's 2022 semi-final run both position this as a high-profile encounter likely to draw bookmaker attention. The 33% current probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal—supplementary markets are neither automatic nor guaranteed, particularly if either side's squad status remains unclear heading into the tournament.
Traders should monitor official FIFA and broadcaster announcements through 12 June for any late squad changes or injury updates affecting either nation. Bookmaker activity typically accelerates 48 hours before high-profile matches, with major operators signalling expanded offerings via press releases or platform updates. The timing of this settlement window—closing mid-evening on match day—creates a compressed window for market expansion to occur and be reflected in trading activity. Fixture confirmation and final squad lists, expected by early June, will be the primary catalysts determining whether secondary markets launch.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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