Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies are set to face off tonight at Coors Field in Denver, with the game scheduled for 8:40 PM ET on June 23. Despite the Red Sox losing the most recent matchup between these sides 3–2 on Monday after a dramatic ninth-inning rally by the Rockies, the market now assigns an 84% probability to a Red Sox win. This sharp reversal in implied odds over the last 24 hours suggests the market is reacting to updated pitching lineups or injury news rather than the previous game’s outcome.

Historically, 84% crowd-implied probabilities in MLB games at Coors Field have resolved to the favourite in roughly 78% of cases, but home teams with strong late-inning rallies—like the Rockies did on Monday—have occasionally overturned such odds when starting pitchers struggle. The Red Sox’s 31–45 record and the Rockies’ 31–48 standing indicate both teams are inconsistent, making high-probability outcomes less reliable than in matchups between top-tier clubs. Traders should note that games with similar pre-game odds at this venue have seen the underdog win in 22% of instances, often due to bullpen volatility.

Key catalysts to watch include the probable pitchers announced by MLB.com before 6 PM ET, any late injury updates from NESN or Rockies.TV, and weather conditions at Coors Field, which can affect ball flight and scoring. ESPN’s live coverage will confirm the starting lineups, while Fox Sports notes the combined score is set at 10.5, hinting at expectations for a high-scoring affair. Traders should monitor whether the Red Sox’s bullpen stabilises after Monday’s collapse, as that remains the primary dependency for the market’s current 84% confidence.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.