Tunisia vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia and Japan meet in the FIFA World Cup group stage on Sunday, with the market sitting at a **24% yes** price even though the latest football odds still make Japan the clear favourite and put the total around a low-scoring game. ESPN’s match page lists Japan at roughly **-190** on the moneyline, Tunisia at about **+600**, and the draw at around **+310**, while FOX Sports has Japan around **-192** and the under 2.5 goals shaded as the likelier side.[2][1]

That pricing leaves the market reading more like an upset or draw story than a straight win for Tunisia. Comparable World Cup group-stage games between a higher-ranked Asian side and a North African side often settle into narrow margins, with the under taking on more weight when the favourite is priced strongly but not overwhelmingly. FIFA’s own match-centre framing also points to Japan arriving with a confidence edge, which is consistent with the market leaning towards Japan avoiding defeat rather than Tunisia forcing a breakthrough result.[4][2]

The main catalysts over the next 24-48 hours are team-sheet confirmation, any late fitness news, and the final pre-match line movement around the Asian handicap and total. The game is listed for Guadalupe, Mexico, with ESPN showing 12:00 AM coverage and FOX Sports already publishing live odds, so traders should watch whether Tunisia shortens if Japan rotate or whether the under strengthens further if line-ups skew conservative.[2][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Japan on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.