Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with the match kicking off at 10:00 PM ET. The 8% probability assigned to an exact score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise final tallies in international football; most group-stage matches between nations of differing quality produce varied scorelines rather than clustering around a single result.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group fixtures typically see winning probabilities between 5% and 12% for any single listed outcome, depending on the teams' relative strength and recent form. Sweden qualified for the 2022 World Cup and reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2020, whilst Tunisia has competed in five World Cups but has not advanced beyond the group stage since 1978. The gap in pedigree and consistency makes Sweden favourites, yet Tunisia's defensive organisation in qualifying rounds has occasionally produced low-scoring contests. Comparable matches between established European sides and African qualifiers have settled across a wide range—from 1–0 victories to 3–1 wins—making any single scoreline a statistical long shot.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through early June, particularly regarding Sweden's attacking depth and Tunisia's goalkeeper status. Recent World Cup group-stage patterns show that matches between sides with significant quality differentials tend toward 2–1 or 2–0 results more frequently than other outcomes, though this remains a minority of all possible scores. Fixture congestion in the group stage may also affect team selection and intensity, particularly if either side has already secured qualification before this match.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

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