Kosovo vs. Andorra

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kosovo and Andorra are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 7 June 2026, with the match settling this market at 17:00 UTC. The 100% crowd probability reflects the straightforward nature of the fixture: both teams are confirmed participants in the UEFA calendar, and no recent developments in the past 48 hours have altered the likelihood of the match proceeding as planned.

Friendly matches between lower-ranked nations carry minimal cancellation risk compared to competitive fixtures. Kosovo (ranked around 120th globally) and Andorra (typically 180th+) have both participated consistently in recent international windows without fixture disruptions. Historical precedent shows that friendlies between these two sides, when scheduled, have proceeded without incident. The only material risk factors would be extraordinary circumstances—severe weather, security concerns, or sudden squad unavailability—none of which have emerged for this June date.

Traders should monitor UEFA's official fixture confirmations and any squad announcements from both federations closer to the settlement window. Whilst the match is unlikely to be cancelled outright, late-stage postponements occasionally occur when nations rotate squads for friendlies or prioritise other commitments. The settlement hinges on the match occurring as scheduled; no specific outcome is being predicted, only the event's occurrence. Any official statement from either national federation regarding fixture changes would be the primary catalyst to watch.

Methodology

We track Kosovo vs. Andorra on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.