Iraq vs. Venezuela - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Venezuela are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 9 June at 9:00 PM ET, with the market currently pricing zero probability of additional betting markets materialising around the fixture. The 0% implied probability reflects either high confidence that no further markets will open, or minimal trader activity on this particular outcome. Settlement hinges on whether Predictit or comparable platforms expand their offering beyond whatever markets already exist for this match by the 10 June deadline.

Historical precedent suggests FIFA friendlies between lower-ranked nations attract limited secondary market development. Platforms typically concentrate liquidity on major confederations and higher-profile fixtures; friendlies involving CONMEBOL and AFC sides outside the top 50 rankings rarely generate the volume needed to justify multiple betting angles. The absence of qualifying tournament context or continental championship stakes further dampens market expansion incentives compared to competitive fixtures.

Traders should monitor fixture confirmation status through FIFA's official calendar and any late-stage squad announcements that might alter perceived match significance. Venue changes or postponements could theoretically trigger additional market creation if rescheduling creates scheduling conflicts or shifts broadcast prominence. Recent patterns from similar low-tier international friendlies suggest platforms make market decisions 48–72 hours before kickoff based on expected liquidity; the tight settlement window leaves minimal room for reactive market launches after the match begins.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.