Greece vs. Italy

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Greece and Italy meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Sunday, 7 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a Greece victory at 41 per cent. This fixture sits in the post-Euro 2024 calendar window when both nations will be preparing for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, making squad rotation and tactical experimentation likely priorities for both camps.

Italy's recent record against Greece offers limited direct precedent—the sides last met competitively in 2019 World Cup qualifying, where Italy won 2–0 away and drew 1–1 at home. However, the broader context matters more here: Italy's performance trajectory since Euro 2024 and Greece's standing in UEFA rankings will shape selection decisions. Friendlies at this stage typically see coaches field mixed lineups, which historically increases volatility in outcomes compared to competitive fixtures. The 41 per cent probability for Greece suggests the market views this as moderately favourable to Italy, though not heavily weighted toward the favourites.

Key variables to monitor include official squad announcements from both federations, expected around early June, which will clarify whether either side fields a significantly weakened eleven. Injury updates for key players in the weeks before the match could shift preparation focus. The timing—just weeks before World Cup qualifying resumes—means both coaches may prioritise fitness assessment over winning, potentially favouring a draw or lower-scoring result. Any late fixture cancellations or reschedules would immediately alter settlement conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.