Bahrain vs. Syria

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bahrain and Syria are scheduled to play a FIFA International Friendly on 9 June 2026, with the match settlement occurring at 14:00 UTC. The 1% probability reflects the current market assessment of this fixture occurring as planned. No material changes have emerged in the past 48 hours regarding either nation's participation or the match scheduling, though the extended timeline to June 2026 means fixture confirmations remain subject to revision.

Historical precedent suggests friendlies between lower-ranked Asian sides carry elevated cancellation risk compared to competitive qualifying matches. Bahrain currently ranks around 140th in FIFA standings whilst Syria sits considerably lower, making this a relatively low-profile encounter. Friendly matches involving Middle Eastern nations have experienced postponements or cancellations due to administrative delays, visa complications, or fixture congestion during international windows. The 1% probability likely reflects accumulated historical friction in scheduling such matches rather than any specific current impediment.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Asian Football Confederation and both national federations as the June window approaches. Fixture confirmation typically occurs 60–90 days prior to international breaks. Any geopolitical developments affecting Syria's participation in international competitions, or scheduling conflicts within the June 2026 international window, would constitute material catalysts. The settlement window's proximity to the actual match date means late-breaking fixture changes could occur with limited warning, particularly if either federation encounters logistical obstacles in the weeks immediately preceding the friendly.

Methodology

We track Bahrain vs. Syria on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.