Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Market context
Sharks and NIP face off in the upper bracket semifinal of the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 28 May at 1:30 PM ET. The even 50-50 split reflects genuine uncertainty between two rosters with comparable recent form in the competitive Counter-Strike landscape. Both teams have demonstrated capacity to reach this stage, though neither enters as a clear favourite based on recent tournament results or head-to-head records in 2024-2025.
Historical precedent suggests that upper bracket semifinals in tier-one Counter-Strike tournaments often hinge on map pool compatibility and in-game adaptation rather than raw skill disparity. When matched opponents meet at this stage, the team with superior preparation on the specific three maps in play—and better tactical flexibility mid-series—typically prevails. NIP's historical consistency in high-pressure matches contrasts with Sharks' more volatile performance profile, yet volatility can cut both ways in single-elimination formats.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations through 27 May, as last-minute substitutions or player illness have occasionally affected Stake Ranked matches. The tournament's scheduling reliability has been solid, reducing forfeit risk, though the seven-day resolution window provides buffer for any unexpected delays. Fixture confirmations from the official Stake Ranked social channels and team announcements will clarify any changes to the advertised 1:30 PM ET start time. Map bans and veto sequences, typically released 24 hours before play, will offer concrete data on preparation depth for both sides.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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