The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

Sunrisers Leeds have already beaten Birmingham Phoenix in this men’s fixture at Edgbaston, winning by 45 runs after posting 169 for 7 and then restricting Phoenix to 124 for 8. That result is the key change in the last 24 hours: the market’s current 0% YES reflects a match that is no longer live and has been resolved on the field, with the winning side confirmed by scorecard and report.[1][5][11]

For reading this market, the useful comparator is recent head-to-head form rather than hypothetical pre-match pricing. Phoenix have now lost this season’s meeting, and ESPN’s historical record shows a mixed but generally competitive recent series between the sides, including a Phoenix win in 2024, a no-result in 2023, and Sunrisers wins in 2022 and 2025.[7] In the broader 2026 table context, Phoenix were already struggling near the bottom before this game, while Sunrisers arrived with a stronger position and have now improved further on net run rate after another substantial victory.[7][11]

For traders watching late-moving catalysts, the relevant factors were the toss, team sheets, and any interruption or abandonment risk at Edgbaston, because The Hundred’s settlement rules treat ordinary wins, DLS outcomes and on-field tiebreaks as decisive results.[5][9] BBC Sport’s live coverage and commentary confirm the start time and that the contest has now finished, while the scorecard shows Sunrisers’ innings total and Phoenix’s unsuccessful chase, leaving no remaining on-field dependency for settlement.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.