Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stuttgart Open grass-court fixture between French qualifier Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Belgian Gauthier Onclin is scheduled for 10 June 2026, with the market currently reflecting near-certain confidence in a match completion. The 100% YES probability suggests traders expect the match to proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive winner, though the unusual 4:00 AM ET start time (typical of European grass tournaments broadcasting to North American audiences) introduces minor logistical variables around scheduling adjustments.

Mpetshi Perricard, ranked outside the top 100 for much of 2025, has shown volatility in early-season grass performance, whilst Onclin operates at a similar ranking tier with limited Stuttgart-specific history. Neither player commands the injury-resilience profile of top-seeded competitors, making late withdrawals a material consideration at any grass event. Historical Stuttgart Open data shows approximately 2–3% match cancellation rates across the entire draw, typically driven by weather delays or player illness rather than pre-match withdrawals.

Traders should monitor the official ATP and Stuttgart tournament communications through early June for any weather alerts affecting the grass courts, as the settlement window extends to 17 June—allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling. Injury reports on both players during the week preceding the match carry outsized weight given their lower ranking positions and reduced access to injury-management resources. The current 100% probability may reflect limited liquidity rather than genuine certainty; any credible withdrawal announcement would likely trigger sharp repricing toward the 50-50 tie resolution threshold.

Methodology

We track Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.