PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open will be contested at Shinnecock Hills in June, with the field determined through PGA Tour standings and qualifying tournaments over the coming months. The 2% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that the listed player—details on which specific competitor this refers to remain unclear from the settlement terms—will prevail in what remains one of golf's most unpredictable majors. Recent U.S. Opens have seen winners with odds ranging from favourites to genuine outsiders; Bryson DeChambeau won in 2024 at Pinehurst with moderate pre-tournament support, whilst the 2023 champion Jon Rahm had been considered among the field's stronger contenders beforehand. The tournament's difficulty and variable course conditions mean that form leading into June matters considerably, but historical data shows that even players ranked outside the top 20 globally have claimed the trophy within the past decade.

Traders should monitor PGA Tour injury reports and field confirmations as the tournament approaches, particularly given that eligibility depends on maintaining competitive status through spring 2026. The official field announcement typically occurs in May, which will clarify whether the listed player remains in contention or faces elimination under the market's rules. Scheduling changes to the PGA Tour calendar or unexpected withdrawals could alter field composition. Course setup details for Shinnecock Hills, usually released in late April or early May, will provide early indicators of how the venue might favour certain playing styles—links-style rough and firm greens typically reward precision over distance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.