United States vs. Paraguay - First Team to Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States face Paraguay on 12 June 2026 in a World Cup group stage fixture. The 0% probability assigned to the US scoring first reflects either extreme confidence in Paraguay's defensive setup or minimal trading activity in this specific market segment. Given the US typically fields competitive attacking lineups in tournament play, this pricing warrants scrutiny against historical precedent and squad composition data closer to the match date.

First-goal markets in World Cup group stages historically favour teams with established attacking patterns and higher possession rates. The US has scored in their opening matches in recent tournaments, though Paraguay's defensive record—particularly in qualifying campaigns—shows resilience against pressure. Comparable fixtures between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL sides at World Cups show opening-goal outcomes split fairly evenly, with neither confederation demonstrating systematic first-scorer dominance. The 0% reading suggests either a data lag or extremely thin liquidity rather than genuine certainty about Paraguay's attacking intent.

Traders should monitor team sheet confirmations and any late squad adjustments released in the 48 hours before kickoff. Paraguay's recent friendly results and tactical announcements will signal whether they're adopting a defensive or counter-attacking approach. The US coaching staff's selection decisions—particularly regarding attacking midfield and forward positioning—directly influence early-game tempo. Injury updates to either side's key playmakers could shift expected possession patterns materially. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time to resolve.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.