Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| O/U 1.5 | 77% Over | 24% Under |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% Over | 94% Under |
| Brazil (-1.5) | 49% Brazil | 52% Scotland |
| Brazil (-2.5) | 26% Brazil | 75% Scotland |
| O/U 3.5 | 30% Over | 71% Under |
| Scotland (-1.5) | 2% Scotland | 98% Brazil |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group C match between Scotland and Brazil, scheduled to kick off at 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, 24 June 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. This fixture marks the first World Cup meeting between the two nations since 1998, with the crowd-implied probability of 77% YES suggesting a strong expectation for the game to exceed the standard number of markets, likely driven by Brazil’s attacking dominance and the high stakes of Round 2[1][6].
Historically, World Cup matches involving Brazil in Group stages have frequently generated elevated market activity due to their prolific scoring and tactical fluidity, often resulting in more than the average number of betting markets being offered. Comparable cases from recent tournaments show that when a top-tier team like Brazil faces a mid-tier opponent in a decisive group match, the likelihood of additional markets increases significantly, aligning with the current 77% probability[3][7].
Traders should monitor the official line-up announcements released by both camps ahead of kick-off, as any unexpected absences or tactical shifts could alter the market trajectory. Additionally, the broadcast schedule on BBC One in the UK and Fox Sports in the US may influence real-time market liquidity, with live coverage potentially driving rapid price adjustments[2]. Recent training footage from Scotland indicates full squad availability, but Brazil’s camp has yet to confirm final selections, making this a critical dependency for market movement[8].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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