Paraguay vs. Australia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Australia’s third and final Group D match against Paraguay is now five days away, and the market has settled with Paraguay at about **25% YES**, reflecting a fairly narrow but real edge for Australia in the current pricing. ESPN lists Australia on 3 points from two games and Paraguay on 0 points from one, which gives the match a live tournament-qualification angle rather than a dead rubber. [3]

That 25% view is best read against a contest that is still probabilistic, not lopsided. ESPN’s pre-match market shows Paraguay at +120, Australia at +105 and the draw at +225, which implies a modest separation rather than a dominant favourite. [3] FIFA’s match centre also has the fixture locked in for 25 June, with live updates and line-ups tied to the official game page, reinforcing that the settlement hinges on the tournament’s final-group-stage dynamics rather than a standalone friendly-style result. [5]

For traders, the main catalysts are team news, travel and recovery timing, and any confirmation of starting line-ups or late withdrawals before kick-off. Australia’s own team information says the game kicks off at 7:00pm local time on Friday 26 June, with broadcast timing set for 12:00pm AEST, so the key repricing window will be the final hours before line-ups drop. [1] If either side is already safely through or eliminated by then, the incentive structure can shift quickly, especially given the tight group-stage margins and the possibility that Australia’s progression picture depends on results elsewhere. [4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.