Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

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Market context

Netherlands and Sweden meet at NRG Stadium in Houston with kick-off set for 1 p.m. ET, and the market is being priced against a genuinely live scoreline rather than a broad match-winner view. Recent previews have converged on a tight, moderately high-scoring contest: one major outlet called 3-2 to the Netherlands, while another leaned the other way and tipped Sweden to edge it 2-1, which helps explain why an exact-score market can still attract a small but meaningful 5% implied chance rather than collapsing into the long tail.[1][2]

The historical read is that exact-score markets are naturally fragmented because even when a side is favoured, the result still has to land on one specific combination. The current pricing also sits alongside published match odds that have the Netherlands around even-money to clear the game in regulation, with the draw and Sweden both live enough to keep alternative scorelines in play.[2][3] That mix usually favours compact outcomes such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 1-1 over more extreme results, but any early goal can quickly shift the distribution towards the kind of two-way, higher-scoring patterns highlighted in today’s previews.[1][3]

What matters now is team news and whether the game unfolds as expected before the 90-minute cut-off. The fixture is scheduled for the Group F stage, so the only dependencies are the official line-ups, any late injury or suspension updates, and whether there is a delay to kick-off at Houston’s NRG Stadium.[3][5] Broadcasters have listed live coverage for the match, which usually means the most relevant market-moving information arrives in the final team-sheet window and immediately after the opening minutes, when exact-score probabilities can reprice sharply if either side starts fast.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.