France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France and Iraq kick off in Philadelphia at 21:00 UTC, with the market still anchored to a regulation-time scoreline only: extra time and penalties do not count, so the live price is really a read on France’s win margin and whether Iraq can keep the game tight.[7][3] The crowd-implied 3% for **Yes** suggests the listed exact score is being treated as a longshot rather than a live possibility, which fits a fixture where France are strong favourites and the market is pricing the most obvious score patterns instead of an outlier.[3]

Recent comparable pricing points in the same match family show a clear France bias: ESPN has France around -700 on the moneyline and Iraq at +3000, with the draw also remote at +1100.[3] FOX Sports’ match boxscore also frames the contest with a combined total of 3.5 goals, which is consistent with a market expecting France to control territory and chances but not necessarily produce a shootout.[1] On that basis, the exact-score market is most sensitive to whether France score early and then manage the game, or whether Iraq can drag the tempo down and keep the margin within one or two goals.

The main catalysts to watch are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether France field a first-choice attack or a more conservative group selection before kick-off.[7][3] FIFA’s match centre confirms the scheduled venue and start time, so any movement in the next few hours should come from team news rather than scheduling uncertainty.[7] If the game begins as expected and France score first, the probability of a narrow exact-score outcome usually compresses quickly; if Iraq hold the scoreline deep into the first half, the market will have more room to drift away from the favourites’ most likely scorelines.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews France vs. Iraq - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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