Jordan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia travel to face Jordan in a FIFA International Friendly on 7 June 2026, with the 8% implied probability suggesting the market views a Jordan victory as highly unlikely. No material developments have shifted expectations in the past 48 hours, though the fixture remains several months away and squad composition remains fluid.

Historical matchups between these sides offer limited direct precedent—they have met only twice in competitive play, with Colombia winning both encounters (2-1 in 2016 World Cup qualifying, 1-0 in 2015 Copa América). Colombia's ranking advantage is substantial; they typically sit 15–20 places above Jordan in FIFA standings and have qualified for every World Cup since 1998, whilst Jordan has never reached a World Cup finals. Friendly matches do occasionally produce upsets, particularly when stronger nations field experimental or rotated squads, but Colombia's recent track record suggests they treat preparation fixtures seriously ahead of tournament windows.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations as the fixture approaches, particularly whether Colombia opts for first-choice players or uses the match to evaluate fringe talent. The timing—just before the 2026 World Cup—may influence team selection; if Colombia has already secured their tournament squad and squad rotation is extensive, the upset probability could edge higher. Jordan's home advantage in Amman carries modest weight in friendlies. Any late injury announcements to Colombia's key players in the weeks preceding 7 June would be the primary catalyst to watch for probability movement.

Methodology

We track Jordan vs. Colombia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.