Ecuador vs. Guatemala

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ecuador and Guatemala are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Sunday, 7 June 2026. The match represents a routine fixture in the international calendar ahead of the Copa América tournament later that summer. No material developments have shifted the underlying event status in the past 48 hours; the fixture remains confirmed for that date, with both federations having named squads or indicated participation.

The 100% probability reflects the straightforward nature of friendly matches, which rarely face cancellation once scheduled. Historical precedent shows that international friendlies between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF sides proceed as planned barring extraordinary circumstances—natural disasters, security crises, or sudden federation withdrawals are exceptionally rare. Ecuador and Guatemala have played each other multiple times without incident; the fixture carries no political tension or logistical red flags that would suggest last-minute abandonment. The settlement window extends to 20:00 UTC on match day, providing sufficient time for any late-breaking developments to surface.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as June approaches, though these typically affect match outcome rather than whether the fixture occurs. Venue confirmation and any weather alerts for the host city would be the primary catalysts for material change. FIFA's official fixture calendar and statements from the respective national football associations remain the authoritative sources for confirmation. The probability reflects the base rate for scheduled friendlies reaching completion rather than any specific strength in either team's position.

Methodology

We track Ecuador vs. Guatemala on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.