Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) | 58% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 57% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 42% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 31% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 31% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 28% |
| Any Player Rampage | 23% |
| Any Player Rampage | 23% |
| Match Winner | 18% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to dota 2: nigma galaxy vs boomboys (bo3) - the international playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and BoomBoys in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
We track Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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