Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Daniel Altmaier in the first round of Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The Canadian, ranked in the top 20, is favoured at 62 per cent implied probability, reflecting his superior ranking and hard-court pedigree. Altmaier, a German clay-court specialist, enters as the underdog despite clay being his preferred surface. The scheduling—a 5:00 AM ET start—may influence match dynamics, though both players have competed in early-round slots at majors previously.

Auger-Aliassime's record against lower-ranked opponents on clay has been mixed; he reached the Roland Garros quarter-finals in 2024 but struggled against defensive, baseline-heavy players. Altmaier's clay-court record shows consistent competitiveness in Challenger events and qualifying rounds, with wins over seeded players on the surface. Historical first-round matchups between top-20 players and clay specialists ranked outside the top 50 typically favour the higher-ranked player 65–70 per cent of the time, suggesting the current 62 per cent probability leaves modest value for Altmaier backers.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any late injury withdrawals through the settlement window closing 31 May. Weather disruptions at Roland Garros in late May occasionally delay matches beyond the 7-day threshold; the market's 50-50 tie-break clause applies if play extends past 31 May without completion. Recent ATP scheduling patterns show early-round matches typically conclude within 48 hours unless weather intervenes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.