PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Ohio remains six months away, with the field yet to be formally announced. Current market pricing at 0% for the listed player cohort reflects the early stage of tournament preparation and the substantial uncertainty inherent in golf markets this far in advance. No significant roster changes or injury announcements have shifted positioning in the past 48 hours, though the PGA Tour schedule continues to evolve with sponsorship confirmations and venue adjustments.

Historical Memorial Tournament markets show that listed-player probability typically remains depressed until field commitments materialise in the weeks preceding the event. The tournament's prestige and mid-June timing mean top-ranked players generally commit late, creating information asymmetry that favours traders monitoring official announcements over static early pricing. When comparable PGA events have settled with unlisted winners, it has typically occurred when established players withdrew due to injury or scheduling conflicts, shifting probability to the "Other" category rather than maintaining listed-player positions.

Traders should track PGA Tour injury reports and the official field announcement, expected in late May 2026. The Workday sponsorship renewal status and any changes to the tournament's scheduling within the broader Tour calendar could influence player availability. Additionally, major championship results in early 2026—particularly the Masters and U.S. Open—will shape which players prioritise the Memorial, affecting both listed and unlisted player probabilities as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.