NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary for New York’s 12th congressional district is now underway, with Assemblyman Micah Lasher holding a narrow 22% lead over Assemblyman Alex Bores at 20%, while Jack Schlossberg and George Conway trail at 11% and 10% respectively, leaving 32% of voters undecided[1]. This 1% market-implied probability for an unnamed nominee reflects the high uncertainty in a crowded field where no single candidate has yet secured a decisive majority, a pattern consistent with past New York City primaries where undecided voters often shift late in the cycle[1]. Comparable cases, such as the 2024 NY-10 primary where Brad Lander’s 34-point lead emerged only after a surge of late-deciding voters, suggest that current polling volatility may resolve sharply once the primary concludes today[1].

Traders should monitor official candidate announcements from the NYC Board of Elections and real-time results from the primary, which closes at 8:00am EDT, as well as any late endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who holds a 66% approval rating among NY-12 Democratic voters[1][8]. The settlement window ends 2026-06-23, but if no nominee is declared by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to “Other”, making the speed of the party’s consensus critical[2]. Recent reporting from CBS News highlights Bores’ focus on congressional priorities, which could sway undecided voters in the final hours[9]. With Republicans holding a 217-212 House majority, the stakes for this seat are elevated, adding pressure for a swift resolution[6]. The lack of a clear frontrunner means the outcome hinges on last-minute voter mobilisation and party coordination.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.