Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate shifts from its current level. Markets are pricing a 92% probability that a decision occurs, reflecting near-certainty that the FOMC convenes and announces a policy adjustment rather than holding rates steady. The settlement hinges on the magnitude of any change, measured in basis points and rounded to the nearest 25bp bracket.

Historical precedent suggests the 92% confidence reflects standard FOMC meeting mechanics rather than exceptional conviction about direction. Since 2015, the Committee has adjusted rates at roughly 60% of scheduled meetings, whilst holding steady at the remainder. The July 2026 meeting arrives amid whatever economic conditions prevail mid-year—inflation trajectory, labour market strength, and growth data will determine whether the Committee acts. Previous cycles show that when markets price near-certainty of a decision, they typically mean the Fed will move rather than pause, though the size of any adjustment remains contested.

Traders should monitor June's employment report (due early July), the Consumer Price Index release, and any Fed communications in the fortnight before the meeting. Chair statements and voting patterns from recent meetings will signal whether consensus exists for a 25bp move, a 50bp shift, or a hold. The market's 92% reading suggests traders view inaction as unlikely given whatever macroeconomic backdrop exists at that point, though the specific basis-point outcome remains genuinely uncertain across the available brackets.

Methodology

We track Fed Decision in July? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.