Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
Market context
No in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has occurred since their 15 August 2025 summit at a military base in Anchorage, Alaska, which ended without agreements and left Moscow pursuing victory over compliance[1][6]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a new meeting before June 2026 reflects this stalemate, mirroring the cancelled 2025 Budapest summit that collapsed over Russia’s maximalist Ukraine claims[4]. Historical precedent shows Putin’s last face-to-face with a US president was in 2021 with Joe Biden in Geneva, while Trump’s prior encounter dates to 2019 in Osaka[2]; the Anchorage meeting remains the sole post-2022 head-of-state dialogue, underscoring how fragile and infrequent such encounters are.
Traders must monitor upcoming G7 developments in France, where Trump and Zelenskyy agreed to continue peace talks, alongside potential US sanctions reinstatement on Russian oil as the current waiver expires this week[7][8]. Crucially, watch for any announcement confirming Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s return to Moscow, as their August 2025 visit in Anchorage preceded the summit[2][5]. Recent Kremlin statements indicate Russia is not pursuing Anchorage deal compliance but seeking victory, suggesting no immediate push for a new meeting[6]; however, Trump’s birthday phone call with Putin on 14 June 2026, which touched on Ukraine peace, could signal renewed diplomatic momentum if followed by official scheduling[5].
Methodology
This page reviews Where will Trump and Putin meet next? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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