Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest change is that Tehran still appears to be resisting any outright handover of its enriched uranium, while diplomatic talk has shifted towards dilution, verification, or keeping material inside Iran rather than surrendering it abroad.[2][5][8] That matters because this market only resolves **Yes** if Iran publicly agrees to transfer, ship, or otherwise surrender any portion of the stockpile; a promise to dilute it or keep it on Iranian soil would not qualify.

The longer-run frame is still hostile to a surrender outcome. The IAEA says it cannot verify the location, size, or composition of Iran’s stockpile, and recent reporting suggests much of the high-enriched material may be in or around Esfahan, with movement difficult to confirm after the 2025 strikes and the loss of monitoring access.[1][3][7] Comparable nuclear deals with Iran have usually focused on caps, dilution, or supervised storage, not a public admission that the stockpile will be handed over, which helps explain why the crowd is sitting at 0% despite the strategic pressure.

For traders, the next catalysts are any fresh statements from the Supreme Leader’s office, the foreign ministry, or the US administration, plus the next IAEA Board and any follow-on inspection or talks schedule.[2][8] Reuters and other outlets have already flagged that Iranian officials have privately resisted export while leaving the door open to lowering purity, so the market is most sensitive to whether that position changes into an explicit transfer commitment.[2][5] A formal US-Iran framework, a third-party custody proposal, or an IAEA-backed arrangement with public wording on shipping the material would be the clearest route to a repricing.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.