Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The U.S. House has passed a war powers resolution to halt military action against Iran, marking a rare bipartisan rebuke of President Trump’s three-month conflict, yet the Senate has repeatedly failed to advance a similar measure, leaving the path to full congressional approval uncertain[1][5]. Despite the House vote of 215–208, the resolution remains symbolic unless both chambers pass identical bills and overcome a likely presidential veto, which would require a two-thirds majority in each[2][3].

Historically, war powers resolutions have struggled to overcome partisan divides and executive resistance; seven prior Senate joint resolutions and two House concurrent resolutions on the Iran conflict failed on narrow, party-line votes[4]. The current 100% crowd-implied probability appears detached from this precedent, as neither chamber has yet passed matching legislation, and the Senate’s procedural vote on May 19 has not translated into full approval[2][4].

Traders should monitor the Senate’s upcoming votes on both the discharged joint resolution (S.J.Res. 185) and the House-passed concurrent resolution (H.Con.Res. 86), as failure to advance either would block the market’s “Yes” outcome[4]. Key catalysts include any new announcements from Senate leadership on scheduling, potential White House statements on veto threats, and the timing of the next weekly Senate effort to advance the resolution, which has fallen one vote short in recent attempts[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.