Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market reflects a 0% probability that federal prosecutors will charge any Trump investigator, special counsel, or prosecutor between now and May 31, 2026. This pricing assumes no indictments of figures like Jack Smith, Fani Willis, Alvin Bragg, or others involved in Trump-related investigations over the next eighteen months, despite ongoing political pressure from Trump allies and Republican lawmakers calling for retaliatory prosecutions.

Historical precedent suggests such charges remain exceptionally rare. The U.S. has not systematically prosecuted federal prosecutors or special counsels for their investigative conduct in modern times, even amid intense political conflict. The closest comparisons—investigations into DOJ officials during the Clinton and Obama administrations—resulted in no criminal charges despite Republican-led inquiries. Institutional norms around prosecutorial independence have generally held, though the Trump era has tested these boundaries repeatedly. The absence of credible evidence of criminal wrongdoing by investigators, combined with the political and legal obstacles to prosecuting sitting or former federal officials, explains the market's extreme scepticism.

Traders should monitor Republican congressional activity, particularly any formal criminal referrals from House committees, as these could signal momentum toward DOJ action. The appointment of a new Attorney General in 2025 will be critical; current signals suggest limited appetite for retaliatory prosecutions at the federal level, though state-level actions remain possible. Court filings in ongoing Trump cases and any statements from the incoming administration regarding prosecutorial accountability will provide near-term signals about whether this scenario moves from theoretical to plausible.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.