Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade window remains closed until the 2026 off-season officially opens, with no significant roster movements reported in the past 48 hours affecting the listed player's status. Teams are currently in their regular competitive phase, making mid-season trades rare unless a player becomes available due to injury, contract dispute, or sudden organisational restructuring. The 3% probability reflects the baseline expectation that most players remain with their current franchises through the settlement date in July 2026.

Historical precedent shows that mid-season trades involving established roster players occur in fewer than 5% of cases across any given NFL season. Notable exceptions—such as the Saquon Barkley trade to Philadelphia in 2022 or the Stefon Diggs deal in 2024—typically involve either underperforming assets, cap-relief situations, or teams making unexpected playoff pushes. The player in question would need to fall into one of these categories to trigger a trade before the July deadline, which remains statistically unlikely given current team dynamics and contract structures.

Traders should monitor upcoming injury reports, coaching changes, and any public statements from team management regarding roster satisfaction. The NFL trade deadline in early November 2025 will serve as a critical inflection point; if the player remains untouched then, the probability of a trade by July 2026 typically declines further. Contract restructuring announcements or unexpected front-office departures could shift expectations, though such developments have not materialised recently. The settlement window extends well into the off-season, capturing the formal trading period when teams actively reshape rosters ahead of the 2026 draft.

Methodology

We track Which NFL players will be traded? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.