Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed, with recent transit data hovering well below the 60-call threshold required for resolution. The 7-day moving average has languished in the 20–35 range throughout late 2024 and early 2025, reflecting sustained disruptions from Houthi attacks on vessels, regional tensions, and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. No material change in transit patterns has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift the underlying constraint.

Historical precedent suggests recovery to pre-disruption levels (typically 70–90 daily transits) requires either decisive military intervention to suppress attacks or a negotiated settlement that restores shipper confidence. The 2019–2020 tanker war saw similar traffic collapses take 18–24 months to reverse, even after initial security improvements. Current geopolitical conditions—with Houthi operations continuing and no announced ceasefire—offer limited grounds for rapid normalisation within the 18-month window.

Traders should monitor three catalysts: formal announcements of enhanced naval operations in the strait, any breakthrough in Yemen peace negotiations (unlikely before mid-2025), and shipping insurance premium movements, which currently price in sustained risk. Lloyd's List and regional maritime authority statements will signal whether conditions are shifting. The 9% implied probability reflects the genuine difficulty of achieving a 60-call average by June 2026 under present circumstances, though a sudden geopolitical shift remains possible.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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