Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

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Market context

Shenzhen's early June weather is entering its pre-monsoon transition phase, with the city typically experiencing warm, humid conditions as the southwest monsoon begins its seasonal advance. The 0% probability assigned to this market reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting a specific temperature range six months ahead rather than any meteorological constraint—June 1st regularly sees daily highs between 28–32°C at Bao'an Airport, making the outcome contingent on which temperature bracket the market has defined.

Historical records from Bao'an International Airport show June temperatures cluster around seasonal norms, with extreme heat events (above 35°C) rare on individual days during early June, though not unprecedented. The 2015 and 2019 seasons both recorded early-June highs near 33–34°C, whilst cooler years saw peaks around 27–28°C. This variability across years—driven by monsoon onset timing and subtropical ridge positioning—explains why traders cannot confidently narrow the range without knowing the specific temperature thresholds the market has established.

The primary catalyst affecting June 1st conditions will be the strength and timing of the southwest monsoon's arrival across southern China. The China Meteorological Administration typically releases extended-range forecasts in mid-May that provide guidance on monsoon progression, though such predictions carry substantial uncertainty at the six-month horizon. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, currently tracking near seasonal averages, will influence atmospheric moisture and convective activity patterns by early June, though real-time monitoring of these conditions remains the most reliable indicator as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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