Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran's domestic stability remains under strain following renewed protests and economic deterioration, though no imminent collapse of state institutions is evident as of late 2024. The 13% probability reflects the market's assessment that wholesale regime change within roughly two years requires either a rapid escalation of internal unrest or external military intervention—both low-probability events in the near term. Recent demonstrations have centred on economic grievances and women's rights rather than coordinated efforts to dismantle core state structures, and the IRGC maintains operational control over security forces.

Historical precedent suggests regime collapse typically requires either sustained civil uprising with military defection (as occurred in 1979, or more recently in Tunisia 2011) or external military defeat forcing institutional breakdown. Iran's security apparatus has demonstrated capacity to suppress large-scale protests without fracturing, and no faction within the military or clerical establishment has signalled willingness to abandon the Supreme Leader's authority. The threshold for "regime fall" in this market's terms—loss of de facto power over a majority population—is notably higher than mere political instability or leadership succession.

Traders monitoring this market should track escalation in labour strikes, evidence of IRGC unit defections, and any major military setback that might undermine regime legitimacy. Announcements regarding US policy shifts toward Iran, Israeli military operations, or sanctions escalation could shift probabilities, though historical patterns show the regime has weathered comparable pressures. The settlement window closing at end-2026 means only events within approximately 24 months qualify, substantially constraining the probability space.

Methodology

This page reviews Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.