US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran signed a diplomatic agreement on 19 June 2026, following their public announcement four days earlier. The market hinges on whether any substantive text becomes publicly accessible before the 1 July 2026 deadline—a narrow window of roughly two weeks from signing. The 90% implied probability reflects market confidence that disclosure will occur, though the specific mechanism and timing remain uncertain.

Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes for agreement transparency. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released within days of signature, establishing a baseline expectation for modern diplomatic agreements. Conversely, several US-China trade agreements have seen delayed or partial disclosure, with technical annexes withheld for weeks or months. The Iran nuclear deal's relatively swift publication reflected both international pressure and the involvement of multiple signatories requiring domestic ratification, whereas bilateral US-Iran arrangements face fewer institutional constraints but potentially greater operational sensitivity.

Traders should monitor State Department press releases and congressional notifications, as US law typically requires 30-day notification before certain international agreements take effect. Iranian government statements and state media will signal Tehran's disclosure intentions independently. The scheduled signing ceremony itself may include text distribution to attending journalists or diplomats. Any congressional testimony or briefing by US officials in the coming fortnight could inadvertently release substantive details. The market's high probability reflects the modern norm of transparency, though geopolitical sensitivities around Iran policy could still justify redactions or delayed release of specific provisions.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.