Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The United States men’s national team faces Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium on 25 June 2026, with the game’s first 45 minutes determining the halftime outcome. The US has already won Group D, meaning this fixture is dead-rubber for standings, yet the market still prices a 16% chance of a US halftime win. This low probability reflects Türkiye’s recent competitive resilience: in a friendly just days prior, they drew 1–1 with the US after scoring in the 20th minute, and earlier stunned the Americans with a 2–1 victory in a shock loss that reset US confidence[1][6].

Historically, dead-rubber World Cup matches involving already-qualified teams often produce cautious, draw-heavy first halves. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show that when one side has no tournament pressure, halftime results frequently end in draws (60–70% of such matches), with away wins slightly more common than home wins. The current 16% US win probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting the market expects Türkiye to control tempo or at least neutralise the US early, despite the Americans’ superior group performance[2][5].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, as both coaches may rotate heavily given the US’s secured knockout spot and Türkiye’s winless group status. Pochettino’s third consecutive loss with the USMNT raises questions about tactical adjustments, while Türkiye’s recent draw against the US hints they can exploit US defensive lapses[1]. Watch for any late injury updates or formation shifts, as these could significantly alter early-game dynamics. The match kicks off at 10:00 PM ET, with stoppage time included in the 45-minute window[4][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.