Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Norway will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June, with settlement determined by the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 4% probability assigned to this specific outcome reflects the mathematical rarity of predicting an exact scoreline in international football, where most matches produce one of roughly 30–40 plausible results. Neither team has qualified for a World Cup since 1986 and 1998 respectively, making this a fixture between sides rebuilding competitive infrastructure rather than established tournament performers.

Exact-score markets typically concentrate probability mass on low-scoring outcomes—0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–1—because these account for the majority of international matches. Iraq's recent form shows inconsistent attacking output; Norway's qualification path involved playoff victories but limited goal-scoring depth. Historical precedent suggests that when two teams with modest offensive records meet, scorelines of 0–0 or 1–0 capture 40–50% of exact-score probability combined. The 4% figure here likely reflects a specific scoreline rather than a broad category, making the actual probability dependent on which exact result the market lists.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through early June, particularly regarding key attacking players for both nations. Fixture congestion in the weeks before the tournament may affect preparation intensity. Weather conditions at the venue—the 2026 tournament spans North America—could influence match tempo and defensive solidity, factors that shift exact-score probabilities more than they affect match outcomes themselves.

Methodology

We track Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.