Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains on hold as markets digest persistent inflation readings and mixed labour market signals heading into the spring FOMC cycle. The 0% probability assigned to rate changes across the March, April, and June meetings reflects current market consensus that the Fed will maintain the upper bound of the target federal funds rate in its existing range through mid-2026, absent a significant economic shock. Recent data on core inflation and employment have done little to shift expectations toward either cuts or hikes in the near term.

Historical precedent suggests extended holding periods are common when the Fed reaches what officials describe as a "pause" in policy adjustment. Between 2018 and 2019, the FOMC held rates steady for over a year after raising them to 2.25–2.50%, waiting for clearer signals on economic momentum before cutting. The current environment mirrors that cautious positioning: officials have signalled flexibility but lack the conviction needed to move in either direction. Markets have priced in the possibility of cuts later in 2026, but not during this particular three-meeting window.

Traders should monitor the March employment report (due 4 April), which will arrive between the first and second FOMC meetings, and the Fed's updated economic projections at the March gathering itself. Inflation data releases in late February and April will prove critical; any sustained acceleration could shift the 0% probability upward toward hike scenarios, whilst a sharper-than-expected slowdown might trigger cut expectations. Chair Powell's communications style at each press conference will also shape near-term market positioning, particularly any language suggesting policy flexibility.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.