Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-8.5) vs Team Vitality (+8.5) | 90% Leviatán Esports | 11% Team Vitality |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-9.5) vs Team Vitality (+9.5) | 11% Leviatán Esports | 90% Team Vitality |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% Over | 10% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% Over | 91% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 50% Leviatán Esports | 50% Team Vitality |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 50% Leviatán Esports | 50% Team Vitality |
Market context
Team Vitality’s place in the lower-bracket semifinal was shaped by the last 24–48 hours of playoff action, with both Vitality and Leviatán still alive in London after the bracket narrowed to the final four. Recent Masters London coverage also shows Vitality had already gone the distance in a series earlier in the event, beating Paper Rex 2–1, which underlines that their route here has been competitive rather than straightforward.[1][2]
The 50% crowd line is consistent with a match that looks close on paper and on bracket position. VLR lists this as a lower-round playoff meeting in Masters London, which means the winner stays in the title path while the loser is out, so maps and veto order matter more than in a best-of-one.[3] For traders, the main catalysts are simple: confirmation that the fixture starts on time, any official schedule shift from the tournament organisers, and whether either side makes roster or health-related changes before the series begins. Live match pages and broadcast listings have been pointing to the matchup as an active playoffs fixture rather than a postponed one, so the main risk to settlement is an administrative delay, not a format change.[3][7]
If the match is played normally, current pricing should track whichever roster is favoured by map pool and recent stage results; if it slips beyond the seven-day window, the market resolves 50-50 under the stated rules.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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