Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Game 1 Winner | 100% RED Canids | 0% Fluxo W7M |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% RED Canids | 0% Fluxo W7M |
| Match Winner | 100% RED Canids | 0% Fluxo W7M |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 100% RED Canids | 0% Fluxo W7M |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
RED Canids face Fluxo W7M in the upper bracket semifinal of the Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs, with the match scheduled for 8 June at 22:30 UTC. The 100% crowd probability reflects strong market confidence in RED Canids' advancement, though the fixture remains unplayed as of the settlement window opening. Recent roster stability and regional performance trends will determine whether this implied certainty holds through match day.
RED Canids have established themselves as consistent contenders in the Brazilian League of Legends circuit, whilst Fluxo W7M represents the challenger position in this semifinal pairing. Historical upper bracket matchups in South American LoL qualifiers show that seeding and recent tournament results typically correlate with outcomes, though upset potential remains material when teams meet in knockout formats. The 100% probability suggests market participants view RED Canids as substantially favoured based on current form or head-to-head records.
Traders should monitor official EWC announcements regarding match scheduling confirmation, as the settlement window extends only to 9 June 03:50 UTC—leaving a narrow window for delays or postponements to trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Any roster changes, player availability issues, or technical problems announced in the 24 hours before the scheduled start time could shift market dynamics. The match format (best-of-three) means a single upset in game one could reshape expectations mid-series, though the pre-match probability already reflects expected series outcomes rather than individual game variance.
Methodology
We track LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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