Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s lower-bracket meeting with Mentality Monster sits in a familiar spot for Southeast Asia qualifier Dota: a short series where a single map swing can decide whether a higher-profile team stays alive or goes home. The market’s 10% YES price looks low against the match-facing read in current listings, with multiple preview pages and sportsbook-style odds treating Execration as the clear favourite, including implied win rates around the mid-90s. [1][5]

That probability is best read against Execration’s recent form rather than against broad name recognition. Bo3.gg’s match page cites a 60% win rate over the last month for Execration and still frames them as the stronger side by map and series pricing, which is consistent with a market leaning heavily towards a routine progression rather than an upset. Comparable qualifier matches in this bracket typically move sharply on roster news or schedule changes, but absent such a shift, the base case remains that Execration advance. [1]

The main near-term catalyst is simply whether the series starts on schedule and with the expected line-ups; the market’s settlement window already leaves room for a no-contest or long delay, so any official postponement or bracket adjustment matters materially. Match listing pages currently place the game on 22 June around 05:10 UTC, while calendar and live-score feeds suggest the wider SEA qualifier slate is active today, so traders should watch for a stream starting notice, updated bracket order, or any organiser note that changes the lower-bracket sequence. [2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.