Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Counter-Strike Grand Final between magic and NIP in the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs is scheduled for 30 May at 12:30PM ET, with settlement closing that evening. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity on this particular matchup or a technical issue with the market feed, as both teams have demonstrated competitive viability throughout the season and neither has been eliminated from contention.

NIP has maintained consistent performance in recent Ranked events, whilst magic's playoff run suggests they've overcome earlier-season inconsistencies to reach the final. Historical precedent from previous Stake Ranked seasons shows that Grand Finals between established organisations rarely see one side priced entirely out before play begins. The current probability reading warrants verification against live betting markets and official tournament brackets, as a genuine 0% for either finalist would be anomalous given typical competitive distributions in professional Counter-Strike finals.

Traders should monitor official Stake announcements for any schedule changes, player roster confirmations, or technical issues that might trigger the tie-resolution clause. The seven-day buffer in the settlement terms means delays beyond 6 June would force a 50-50 resolution. Recent tournament coverage from esports media outlets typically flags roster changes or withdrawal announcements 24–48 hours before finals, making the next two days critical for assessing whether this probability reflects genuine market conviction or data synchronisation lag.

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.