Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Spirit face Team Yandex in a best-of-one group stage match at BLAST Slam on 26 May, with the fixture scheduled for 06:20 ET. The 100% crowd probability reflects Spirit's established standing as one of Dota 2's elite organisations, having won The International 2021 and consistently competed at the highest level across multiple seasons. Yandex, by contrast, operates as a lower-tier competitive roster with substantially fewer marquee results. The extreme confidence in Spirit's victory is grounded in the structural gap between the two teams' competitive pedigree and recent performance trajectories.

Historical precedent supports reading this as a heavily favoured matchup. When established tier-one teams face developing rosters in single-elimination group stages, the favourite wins approximately 85–90% of the time, though upsets do occur. Spirit's consistency in group-stage play across major tournaments, combined with their roster stability and coaching infrastructure, creates a baseline expectation of victory. Yandex would require either a significant meta shift favouring their draft preferences or uncharacteristic underperformance from Spirit to generate a competitive result.

Watch for last-minute roster changes or stand-in announcements in the 48 hours before the match, which could alter the probability if Spirit fields a substitute player. Schedule delays or technical issues affecting the tournament broadcast are secondary considerations; the settlement window extends to 16:30 ET on 26 May, providing a six-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time. Any cancellation or postponement beyond 7 days would trigger a 50-50 resolution per market rules.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.